Great News for 2023: Vladimir Putin Is Losing His Genocidal War Against Ukraine
One of the most skilled and principled analysts of Russia makes a compelling case
One of my favorite thinkers to follow on Twitter for understanding Vladimir Putin’s efforts to conquer Ukraine has been former diplomat
, a man who has actually negotiated across the table with the neo-czar of Russia when he was Russian Ambassador from 2012 to 2014.So of course I was thrilled when the now-political science professor launched his own substack
to offer more in-depth analysis of this revolting assault against a free society by a murderous man no more moral than a mafia don. McFaul’s most recent essay is very much worth reading in full and it’s incredibly encouraging:
McFaul spells out in no uncertain terms how Vladimir Putin’s intentions with this war are entirely genocidal. The KGB-trained killer oppressing his own people and now Ukraine’s doesn’t even recognize the state’s legitimacy:
He stated several goals. Most ambitiously, he aimed to rid the world of Ukraine entirely. For him, Ukraine is neither a separate national identity nor a sovereign state. Ukrainians are just Russians with accents. Putin aims to reverse, in his eyes, the historical mistakes made by the West and the Bolsheviks that divided the two groups and reunite a single Slavic nation.
McFaul then explains Putin’s perpetual failures in his war objectives in 2022 and the extent to which his military has been degraded and his nation’s economy collapsing:
In 2022, Putin failed to achieve any of his war aims. His war so far has been a colossal failure…
Conquering all of Ukraine failed miserably. After some initial seizing of new territories, Russia lost all the big battles – the Battle for Kyiv, the Battle of Kharkiv, and was pushed out of Kherson. Analysts estimate that Russia has lost control of roughly 50% of the territory it had conquered…
Putin also did not overthrow Zelenskyy and did not achieve regime change. He tried. He sent assassination teams into Kyiv, but they failed. Ukrainians are rallying around their leader, the Zelenskyy government remains in power and enjoys more support than ever, both at home and worldwide…
In failing to achieve any of his war objectives in 2022, Putin also has amassed major costs for Russia’s security and economy. His military – once thought to be one the three largest in the world – is in tatters. The loss of human life and hardware has been enormous and will take years if not decades to recover to pre-invasion levels. Because of international sanctions, Russia’s economy has suffered short-term losses, which will be followed by even more devastating long-term costs. Thousands of international companies have pulled out of Russia; few will return.
McFaul concludes his piece by emphasizing that Western support has been crucial to Ukraine’s success in fending off Putin’s invasion. And he previews that his next article will explain why continued Western support this year will be crucial for a final Ukrainian victory. I’m looking forward to the case he lays out and encourage you to subscribe to his substack.
Now, given Putin’s clearly stated genocidal goals and the inarguable facts that our nation’s support have been critical in preventing them, I have no tolerance for the neo-isolationist populist nationalists on the far Right and the “progressive,” “anti-war” activists on the far Left who are so loud in opposing American support for our Ukrainian allies. Just as I despise these two ideological groups for their opposition to our alliance with Israel in the Jewish state’s efforts to repel the genocidal efforts of Hamas and the Islamic Republic of Iran, I am comparably disgusted by their positions here. So you all can look forward to some intensely pissed off, PTSD-driven, profanity-laced denunciations of them both as they continue to make morally revolting proclamations. I already called out Tucker Carlson in the harshest terms for his disgusting positions in this piece here:
But for now I say let’s be happy and celebrate that Ukraine has been so successful in 2022 and is likely to eventually triumph in 2023.
, my fiancee and our substack’s managing editor, has cautioned me that I’m getting into the habit of generally being too angry, strident, and ranting in my recent writing here so moving forward I’ll do my best to try and balance things out a bit more with some more upbeat postings.So three cheers for Ukraine and their great leader, a modern Winston Churchill, Volodymyr Zelenskyy! Victory against tyranny is in sight but it requires us as Americans to continue the moral support of this free society against the imperial criminals striving to conquer it.
I don't know David. Tyrants like Putin have no problem causing suffering to their own people. Russians are tough, and though they have been hurt badly, Putin will not hesitate to drag another million poor saps into uniform and throw them into the fray. That's what they do. At some point the Russian soldier in the field will realize that he cannot just duck or run away and will fight with more vigor. I cannot see an end to this anytime soon. Hope I'm wrong.